auonsson: "The speed of cargo ship Yi Peng 3 was affected negatively as she passed the 2 Baltic Sea cable breaks C-Lion 1 and BSC. Before the incidents she held normal speeds. After stopping and drifting for 70 minutes she again held normal speeds. By this time the two cables were broken." / Blueviewer

auonsson@auonsson.bsky.social·2024-11-19T10:56:44.536Z

The speed of cargo ship Yi Peng 3 was affected negatively as she passed the 2 Baltic Sea cable breaks C-Lion 1 and BSC. Before the incidents she held normal speeds. After stopping and drifting for 70 minutes she again held normal speeds. By this time the two cables were broken.

auonsson@auonsson.bsky.social·2024-11-19T11:01:12.652Z #

@pekka.bsky.social @garygnutter.bsky.social ^^

x.com/chrisschmitz@chrisschmitz.bsky.social·2024-11-19T11:03:48.671Z #

️"Two cables damaged in the Baltic Sea were the result of a deliberate action by third parties. It is obvious that it was a hybrid action." German Minister of Defence Pistorius

auonsson@auonsson.bsky.social·2024-11-19T11:06:28.716Z #

Then stop the suspect! Arrgh.

Leif Nixon@nixon.now·2024-11-19T11:30:55.875Z #

I suspect the legal issues are complicated.

Bevr @ladylaughlines.bsky.social·2024-11-19T17:22:20.995Z #

It is always complicated. Great excuse for doing nothing or next to nothing, for not wanting to take any risks.

auonsson@auonsson.bsky.social·2024-11-19T12:11:38.624Z #

So? Let the PR dept and lawyers handle that after the fact. Just do it. After the ship is stopped, data retrieved, anchors inspected, crew questioned the one responsible for decision can say, 'Oops, sorry. Acted to defend against hostile action"

Leif Nixon@nixon.now·2024-11-19T12:18:02.157Z #

Rule-based world order, and all that. I'm all for renegotiating the Copenhagen Treaty, though. No passage through the Belts if you don't behave.

FU vatnik Elon! 🇪🇺🇺🇦 Slava Ukraini!@babaimi.bsky.social·2024-11-19T18:11:42.035Z #

Tell this to @thelookout.bsky.social please

MacV@macvsog.bsky.social·2024-11-19T16:35:42.749Z #

Danish Navy appear to be shadowing her. It would be a relatively low risk of escalation to board the ship should it be innocent. NATO decision makers will be working through their operational decision making as we speak.

Pekka Lund@pekka.bsky.social·2024-11-19T11:18:09.559Z #

I guess just shadowing Yi Peng 3 is another hybrid action in response to hybrid action. Hybrid between doing nothing at all and actually stopping it. You know, fight fire with fire, or watered-down fire with watered-down fire. 🤷‍♂️

Steve Townsend@stevetownsend0.bsky.social·2024-11-19T13:14:05.200Z #

this is a weak asymmetric response that encourages further "disruption". transatlantic cables will be next

Pekka Lund@pekka.bsky.social·2024-11-19T13:18:44.285Z #

So far the response seems to be the same as last time. And the fact that I need to talk about multiple times makes it quite clear that kind of response didn't work.

Cecilia Sykala@ceciliasykala.bsky.social·2024-11-19T11:05:54.440Z #

Yi Peng 3 is a dry bulk carrier.

auonsson@auonsson.bsky.social·2024-11-19T10:56:44.537Z #

Head winds could play a role in slowing Yi Peng 3 down, but I don't believe this to be the case. The changes in speed are much more significant than the changes in wind speed. (But wind effects are squared...) Protests from mariners welcome.

auonsson@auonsson.bsky.social·2024-11-19T11:04:55.903Z #

Yi Peng 3 just passed Great Belt Bridge with DK navy shadow right behind her.

auonsson@auonsson.bsky.social·2024-11-19T11:51:06.887Z #

bsky.app/profile/jjdr...

@quantumobservr.bsky.social·2024-11-19T12:24:26.485Z #

www.newsweek.com/nato-lake-to...

Get.a.Grip@basil68.bsky.social·2024-11-19T13:18:59.418Z #

According to DR the ship was running with AIS switched off while passign the cables. I don't see any evidence of that in your series but maybe I am missing something. www.dr.dk/nyheder/udla...

auonsson@auonsson.bsky.social·2024-11-19T13:33:58.188Z #

AIS is commonly miscontrued by journalists and others not used to analyzing it. There is a 7 hour gap in Marinetraffic data, in an area where reception is poor. Does not mean switched off, might be, but usually not. Vesselfinder has data for this period.

auonsson@auonsson.bsky.social·2024-11-19T11:44:52.614Z #

At the other site someone asked "Did other ships slow down?" No. I checked the 5 most close ships heading the same way. They did not slow down similarly in the same wind. The ship most closely resembling Yi Peng 3 actually sped up. The Lady Hanneke. Rest of the ships below.

auonsson@auonsson.bsky.social·2024-11-19T11:44:52.615Z #

4 other ships experiencing the same weather as Yi Peng 3, without slowing down.

auonsson@auonsson.bsky.social·2024-11-19T13:47:02.532Z #

Boarding happening? Frigate is shadowing and patrol boats are closing in from south and north

auonsson@auonsson.bsky.social·2024-11-19T14:18:19.722Z #

No boarding it seems. South Baltic and the general area of cable breaks are seeing slightly unusual presence of Danish frigates and a Swedish mine-warfare ship. (But this might be unrelated.)

Wedge@wedge.blue·2024-11-19T14:11:38.434Z #

doenst look like it now

@cowanln.bsky.social·2024-11-19T14:26:58.180Z #

This is getting dicey

Gwyn@igwyn.bsky.social·2024-11-19T14:08:17.491Z #

oh this is getting interestinger

@bwallacep.bsky.social·2024-11-19T13:51:44.945Z #

Looks like that.

t3chman@t3chman.bsky.social·2024-11-19T14:07:26.599Z #

Appears that the frigate is now headed south, while the patrol boats remain in the vicinity of Yi Peng 3. Not sure if this is due to the channel and navigation needs or if it's breaking off entirely.

Nigel Stead@nigelstead.bsky.social·2024-11-19T13:59:22.197Z #

I’m not a sailor. But am I right to think that dragging an anchor is not accidental except for a very short distance?

Appleskurt@appleskurt.bsky.social·2024-11-19T13:50:14.717Z #

Ett svenskt krigsfartyg är påväg ut från Göteborg och även Norsken glider in över norra Danmark :)

Lord Dovhjort@greven2000.bsky.social·2024-11-19T13:57:43.935Z #

Fingers crossed!

@julian86m.bsky.social·2024-11-20T22:17:30.456Z #

🧐

seggl@seggl.bsky.social·2024-11-19T13:05:55.361Z #

unroll @skyview.social

Jonas Mueller-Töwe@jmuellertoewe.bsky.social·2024-11-19T12:57:25.650Z #

Incredible work!

Krigsplacerad@krigsplacerad.bsky.social·2024-11-19T12:43:45.791Z #

Is it too obvious? Yi Peng 3 only the scapegoat?

auonsson@auonsson.bsky.social·2024-11-19T13:45:03.843Z #

Quite possibly. Or used to send a clear message but with kept deniability.

Henrik Andersen@andersen33.bsky.social·2024-11-19T11:35:43.957Z #

She´s a dry bulk carrier .... But when you look at the Ust-Luga habour there is no grain terminals or other buildings indicating that. Only oil and gas tanks and some container terminals, as far as i can see. Maybe carrying iron ore ..

Fryd@fryd01.bsky.social·2024-11-19T14:23:04.516Z #

board the ship and check what kind of grains they carry

Henrik Andersen@andersen33.bsky.social·2024-11-19T14:25:20.192Z #

The swedes have to sent a request to denmark to conduct one .. They havent. It happend in their economic zone.

Fryd@fryd01.bsky.social·2024-11-19T14:33:40.402Z #

in my view NATO being more powerful militarily and economically should not be afraid of escalation. if Russia is waging hybrid war, so should we. let's pay in kind

auonsson@auonsson.bsky.social·2024-11-19T11:42:05.018Z #

She stayed 36 hrs a bit more north. No STS, no docking.

Henrik Andersen@andersen33.bsky.social·2024-11-19T12:35:13.779Z #

She collecteds coal. Ust Luga has a coal terminal. Up noth there is a LNG and coal complex too

Fryd@fryd01.bsky.social·2024-11-19T14:22:16.421Z #

Danes should detain the ship until it is proven it is not them. or otherwise

FuriousF@€r¡€B¡tch🇺🇸_🇺🇦💪🪖⚖️🕯🇺🇦@furiousfaeriebitch.bsky.social·2024-11-19T22:35:20.813Z #

@fouthtimelucky.bsky.social any insight here? Completely diff. field, I realize, just askin' 🤔

ShipWrekt And Whisky@fouthtimelucky.bsky.social·2024-11-19T22:41:12.113Z #

So you slow, drop the pick. Pay out minimum cable. Enough so you are at a ‘short stay’. Then proceed slow ahead. It seems the bottom is sand and shale so fairly easy, with decent GPS, to drag the anchor using minimum revs.

ShipWrekt And Whisky@fouthtimelucky.bsky.social·2024-11-19T22:47:42.049Z #

BTW this is anchors and clankers. Seamanship. This is so my thing😂

ShipWrekt And Whisky@fouthtimelucky.bsky.social·2024-11-19T22:44:03.063Z #

Charts are clearly marked. Any ship ‘accidentally’ letting anchor go (it wouldn’t happen) would immediately go astern but probably lose the anchor at a lugless joining shackle. Other option is she put divers over the side but….nah.

ShipWrekt And Whisky@fouthtimelucky.bsky.social·2024-11-19T22:38:17.349Z #

You don’t ’accidently’ drop an anchor. They have various ‘preventers’ on them that act as triple redundancy. Her distance over ground plot is pretty .

Anders 🇸🇪🇺🇦@andersfella.bsky.social·2024-11-19T18:16:49.786Z #

Sink the shit! 🤬

@beloftebewaarder.bsky.social·2024-11-19T12:04:02.081Z #

We have to punish China so severely that it will change its actions. Recognising Taiwan as a nation would be a good first step.

Chris Winters 🇩🇪 🇺🇦 🇬🇪@cwinters.bsky.social·2024-11-19T11:38:57.326Z #

📌

Juha Saarinen@juhas.bsky.social·2024-11-19T14:32:33.569Z #

Auonsson, In you opinion, is China actively sabotaging NATO countries (also Newnew Polar Bear cutting Baltic Connector gas pipe) or is Putin playing China?

Steve Townsend@stevetownsend0.bsky.social·2024-11-19T13:12:55.822Z #

PRC and russia are allies in hybrid war on the west. Prove me wrong.

🇩🇪🇺🇸🇨🇵🇪🇦🇮🇹🇺🇦🇵🇹@speakfree.bsky.social·2024-11-19T19:35:35.861Z #

Again another "coincidence" with a Chinese ship, after this here happened in October 2023 www.reuters.com/world/europe...

🇩🇪🇺🇸🇨🇵🇪🇦🇮🇹🇺🇦🇵🇹@speakfree.bsky.social·2024-11-19T19:30:21.933Z #

Thanks for sharing this data and info.

Winter-is-coming@elgatoconbotas2003.bsky.social·2024-11-19T13:30:04.030Z #

A chines ship is destroy - by purpose or by chance?? - the undersea cable? Now it is getting interesting....

Raik Lorenz; auch auf @chaos.social zu finden@rlle.bsky.social·2024-11-19T11:15:15.073Z #

Certainly, the ship just "tripped over" those cables 🙄

Louis Fahrenholz@b4mb1.bsky.social·2024-11-20T19:20:27.317Z #

@auonsson.bsky.social Have you seen this Sentinel-2 imagery from 2024-22-18 10:15Z? The marker is Yi Peng 3s postion at that time, which is when and where she was drifting. I'm no expert, but it does look like some aircraft has been circling above her. I couldn't find any matches on adsbexchange tho

auonsson@auonsson.bsky.social·2024-11-20T20:30:25.574Z #

Such an awesome find. I am working it up a bit :-)

@garygnutter.bsky.social·2024-11-20T23:58:38.818Z #

My quess would be that if those tracks relate to incident, they would be doing sideband sweeps off C-LION1 area and are just turning back at that location. Here is sentinel image imported and YI PENG 3 track overlaid. 10:15Z marked as red round. C-LION1 break point as star: